Click on each name to see their forecast
| Actual | Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Nonresidential Total | – | -0.3 | 3.0 |
| Commercial Total | – | 4.8 | 5.8 |
| Office | – | 9.6 | 9.2 |
| Data Centers | – | 33.0 | 24.7 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | – | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Hotel | – | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| Warehouse | – | -1.7 | 1.4 |
| Manufacturing | – | -11.6 | -0.6 |
| Institutional Total | – | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Health | – | 2.6 | 4.4 |
| Education | – | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Amusement & Recreation | – | 7.1 | 3.0 |
|
Eric Gaus (203) 803-3242 |
Actual | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 846.1 | -1.3 | 2.9 |
| Commercial Total | 252.7 | 6.3 | 9.6 |
| Office | 106.5 | 13.2 | 17.0 |
| Data Centers | 41.0 | 38.6 | 33.5 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 122.1 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| Hotel | 24.1 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Warehouse | 55.4 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| Manufacturing | 220.2 | -14.1 | -5.4 |
| Institutional Total | 373.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Health | 69.1 | -2.0 | 5.3 |
| Education | 138.4 | 0.5 | -0.6 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 43.2 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
|
Colin Seitz (610) 235-5290 |
Actual | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 844.0 | -1.4 | 1.6 |
| Commercial Total | 252.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| Office | 106.6 | 7.1 | 2.4 |
| Data Centers | 41.1 | 32.2 | 17.7 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 122.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Hotel | 24.1 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Warehouse | 55.5 | -0.4 | 0.3 |
| Manufacturing | 219.0 | -14.7 | 0.9 |
| Institutional Total | 372.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Health | 69.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Education | 138.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 43.3 | 5.0 | -2.9 |
|
Brian Strawberry (919) 787-8400 |
Actual | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 846.2 | -1.7 | 3.6 |
| Commercial Total | 252.9 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| Office | 106.7 | 6.8 | 9.3 |
| Data Centers | 41.2 | 28.6 | 27.0 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 122.1 | -0.1 | 2.6 |
| Hotel | 24.1 | 2.9 | 6.2 |
| Warehouse | 58.2 | -3.6 | 3.2 |
| Manufacturing | 220.0 | -14.2 | 1.3 |
| Institutional Total | 373.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 |
| Health | 69.1 | 2.7 | 4.8 |
| Education | 138.2 | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 43.3 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
|
Michael Guckes (614) 425-0816 |
Actual | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 846.2 | 4.7 | 6.7 |
| Commercial Total | 252.9 | 9.3 | 11.5 |
| Office | 106.7 | 15.2 | 15.2 |
| Data Centers | 41.1 | 41.7 | 37.9 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 122.1 | 4.7 | 7.7 |
| Hotel | 24.1 | 6.2 | 13.2 |
| Warehouse | 55.4 | 0.1 | -1.4 |
| Manufacturing | 220.0 | 1.3 | 4.9 |
| Institutional Total | 373.2 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Health | 69.1 | 6.0 | 8.8 |
| Education | 138.2 | -0.6 | -1.8 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 43.3 | 8.5 | 5.6 |
|
Anirban Basu (703) 812-2062 |
Actual | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 846.2 | -1.9 | 0.2 |
| Commercial Total | 252.9 | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| Office | 106.7 | 6.9 | 8.3 |
| Data Centers | 44.9 | 26.0 | 18.0 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 122.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Hotel | 24.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Warehouse | 54.9 | -0.9 | 2.0 |
| Manufacturing | 220.0 | -16.5 | -13.0 |
| Institutional Total | 373.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Health | 69.1 | 3.9 | 7.5 |
| Education | 138.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 43.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 |
|
Charles Dougherty (212) 214-8984 |
Actual | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ | % Change | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Nonresidential Total | 845.7 | 1.9 | 4.4 |
| Commercial Total | 252.5 | 6.5 | 5.4 |
| Office | 106.4 | 13.0 | 7.6 |
| Data Centers | 41.2 | 32.0 | 14.0 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 122.0 | 1.1 | 3.4 |
| Hotel | 24.1 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| Warehouse | 55.4 | -2.6 | 3.1 |
| Manufacturing | 220.4 | -5.4 | 6.4 |
| Institutional Total | 372.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Health | 69.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Education | 138.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 43.2 | 9.5 | 3.5 |
|
Bernard Markstein (484)924-9739 |
Actual | Forecast | $ | % Change | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonresidential Total | 846.2 | -1.4 | 0.3 |
| Commercial Total | 252.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| Office | 106.7 | 7.6 | 1.4 |
| Data Centers | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 122.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Hotel | 24.1 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Warehouse | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Manufacturing | 220.0 | -15.1 | -0.9 |
| Institutional Total | 373.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Health | 69.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| Education | 138.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 43.3 | 6.7 | 0.3 |
|
Mark Vitner (704)458-4000 |
Actual | Forecast | $ | % Change | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonresidential Total | 844.9 | -1.5 | 4.1 |
| Commercial Total | 252.9 | 1.8 | 6.8 |
| Office | 106.7 | 7.2 | 12.8 |
| Data Centers | 41.2 | 31.6 | 25.0 |
| Retail & Other Commercial | 122.0 | -3.6 | 2.0 |
| Hotel | 24.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| Warehouse | 55.4 | -2.5 | 2.8 |
| Manufacturing | 218.8 | -14.1 | 1.1 |
| Institutional Total | 373.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| Health | 69.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Education | 138.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Amusement & Recreation | 43.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 |
Notes:
All submissions are for construction spending put-in-place in billions of $ (not adjusted for inflation) as benchmarked to U.S. Census Bureau releases.
The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.
There is no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.
Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g., public buildings but not private buildings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.
Unless otherwise noted, the institutional category is defined as the sum of: healthcare, education, religious, public safety, amusement and recreation, transportation, and communication.