CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JANUARY 2026

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total – 1.0 2.2
Commercial Total – 3.0 3.5
Office – 6.0 3.9
Data Centers – 26.3 16.5
Retail & Other Commercial – 0.2 2.8
Hotel – 3.2 5.3
Warehouse – -2.2 2.8
Manufacturing – -3.9 -0.9
Institutional Total – 2.7 2.8
Health – 4.6 4.0
Education – 1.5 1.1
Amusement & Recreation – 1.3 1.6

Dodge Construction Network

Eric Gaus
(203) 803-3242
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 886.8 0.5 -0.2
Commercial Total 266.5 11.1 3.9
Office 116.0 19.0 2.5
Data Centers 39.3 39.9 13.5
Retail & Other Commercial 123.4 5.0 5.3
Hotel 27.1 5.4 3.8
Warehouse 55.0 3.2 6.0
Manufacturing 215.5 -17.3 -15.9
Institutional Total 386.6 3.1 3.9
Health 74.2 16.6 9.4
Education 138.5 0.6 0.1
Amusement & Recreation 49.0 1.2 4.2

S&P Global, Market Intelligence

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 772.4 -1.7 0.3
Commercial Total 213.2 3.2 5.4
Office 89.5 5.7 9.0
Data Centers 42.7 45.2 28.2
Retail & Other Commercial 101.2 -0.4 0.5
Hotel 22.5 9.2 11.1
Warehouse 55.5 -2.9 -1.6
Manufacturing 221.6 -11.8 -8.6
Institutional Total 406.3 2.6 2.1
Health 69.5 4.1 3.7
Education 137.5 2.9 2.7
Amusement & Recreation 42.1 -0.7 0.2

Moody’s Analytics

Colin Seitz
(610) 235-5290
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 747.3 0.4 0.8
Commercial Total 251.4 2.6 1.1
Office 105.9 3.1 1.5
Data Centers 40.9 24.1 16.4
Retail & Other Commercial 121.6 1.7 0.4
Hotel 23.9 4.9 2.9
Warehouse 55.4 0.8 -0.6
Manufacturing 222.4 -4.6 -0.2
Institutional Total 370.5 2.7 1.5
Health 69.3 1.6 2.2
Education 137.5 3.1 1.6
Amusement & Recreation 42.6 -0.3 -3.3

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 843.2 0.1 4.2
Commercial Total 249.9 0.9 6.5
Office 105.3 7.3 9.7
Data Centers 42.2 23.0 21.2
Retail & Other Commercial 120.6 -4.2 3.4
Hotel 24.1 -1.8 6.0
Warehouse 55.5 -4.9 8.5
Manufacturing 220.5 -2.6 4.2
Institutional Total 372.8 1.3 2.7
Health 69.7 2.9 4.4
Education 137.7 0.5 2.4
Amusement & Recreation 43.0 -0.8 0.6

ConstructConnect

Michael Guckes
(614) 425-0816
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 845.7 6.3 4.3
Commercial Total 250.7 7.8 4.3
Office 105.5 8.3 -0.5
Data Centers 39.1 16.8 12.0
Retail & Other Commercial 121.5 7.2 6.5
Hotel 23.7 8.1 14.0
Warehouse 55.7 -1.3 3.5
Manufacturing 232.6 6.4 5.2
Institutional Total 362.4 5.3 3.9
Health 68.5 6.9 7.8
Education 132.6 0.2 -0.1
Amusement & Recreation 41.6 7.4 6.0

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 855.2 -1.8 -0.2
Commercial Total 253.9 1.8 1.9
Office 107.4 3.5 2.3
Data Centers 41.1 15.5 13.0
Retail & Other Commercial 122.7 0.6 1.3
Hotel 23.8 0.2 2.8
Warehouse 55.6 -5.2 0.6
Manufacturing 229.6 -8.8 -5.0
Institutional Total 371.7 0.1 1.1
Health 69.8 1.3 0.3
Education 136.7 -1.1 -3.1
Amusement & Recreation 42.9 -3.2 0.3

Wells Fargo Securities

Charles Dougherty
(704) 410-6542
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 826.5 2.8 4.2
Commercial Total 238.9 4.3 4.6
Office 103.5 11.2 6.3
Data Centers 41.1 26.0 11.0
Retail & Other Commercial 112.8 -1.3 3.0
Hotel 22.6 0.5 3.9
Warehouse 51.5 -1.7 2.7
Manufacturing 222.6 2.6 5.2
Institutional Total 365.0 2.0 3.3
Health 69.8 1.9 3.4
Education 128.9 1.5 3.5
Amusement & Recreation 42.0 2.2 2.0

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(484)924-9739
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 847.5 1.9 0.7
Commercial Total 250.8 1.1 0.6
Office 105.6 0.4 0.6
Data Centers N/A N/A N/A
Retail & Other Commercial 121.3 1.0 0.6
Hotel 23.9 4.7 0.9
Warehouse N/A N/A N/A
Manufacturing 224.9 -1.7 -0.2
Institutional Total 371.8 4.7 1.3
Health 69.4 4.1 1.3
Education 137.5 4.6 1.4
Amusement & Recreation 42.7 4.0 0.8

Piedmont Crescent Capital

Mark Vitner
(704)458-4000
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2025 2026 2027
Nonresidential Total 830.7 0.5 5.5
Commercial Total 235.4 -6.0 3.5
Office 103.1 -4.5 3.5
Data Centers 41.5 20.0 16.6
Retail & Other Commercial 110.0 -8.0 3.8
Hotel 22.3 -2.5 2.2
Warehouse 52.8 -5.3 3.3
Manufacturing 222.6 3.2 7.1
Institutional Total 372.7 3.0 5.8
Health 69.3 2.4 3.8
Education 138.7 1.0 1.6
Amusement & Recreation 42.7 2.0 3.8

Notes:

All summissions are for construction spending put-in-place in billions of $ (not adjusted for inflation) as benchmarked to U.S. Census Bureau releases.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There is no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

Unless otherwise noted, the institutional category is defined as the sum of: healthcare, education, religious, public safety, amusement and recreation, transportation, and communication.

The Dodge Construction Network definition of the institutional market does not include communication facilities.

S&P Global classifies all government buildings as institutional.