CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JULY 2025

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total – 1.7 2.0
Commercial Total – 1.5 3.9
Office – 6.9 5.5
Data Centers – 33.7 19.5
Retail & Other Commercial – -3.1 1.8
Hotel – 3.0 6.0
Warehouse – -5.8 1.4
Manufacturing – -2.0 -2.6
Institutional Total – 6.1 3.8
Health – 4.3 4.3
Education – 5.0 3.2
Amusement & Recreation – 9.9 1.3

Dodge Construction Network

Eric Gaus
(203) 803-3242
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 815.0 6.8 3.6
Commercial Total 251.2 13.5 10.6
Office 101.2 33.5 15.8
Data Centers 28.4 68.4 39.9
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 -3.5 4.4
Hotel 23.4 18.8 12.4
Warehouse 60.9 -7.6 5.9
Manufacturing 233.1 -17.1 -7.4
Institutional Total 330.8 18.5 4.0
Health 68.8 28.5 10.4
Education 130.5 7.4 5.5
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 25.2 1.3

S&P Global, Market Intelligence

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 765.8 -2.4 -2.9
Commercial Total 215.3 -1.8 1.4
Office 84.2 0.3 1.8
Data Centers N/A N/A N/A
Retail & Other Commercial 108.3 -6.4 -2.8
Hotel 22.8 12.5 16.4
Warehouse 60.8 -8.6 -4.2
Manufacturing 229.9 -11.2 -15.0
Institutional Total 391.2 4.3 2.0
Health 67.8 1.0 4.1
Education 128.6 5.4 3.0
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 3.6 -2.5

Moody’s Analytics

Colin Seitz
(610) 235-5290
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 744.8 0.6 -0.9
Commercial Total 251.2 0.2 1.8
Office 101.2 3.7 2.3
Data Centers 28.4 31.6 17.3
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 -2.3 1.3
Hotel 23.4 -1.1 1.6
Warehouse 60.9 -4.3 1.6
Manufacturing 232.0 -2.6 -5.7
Institutional Total 357.5 3.8 1.1
Health 68.6 1.6 0.9
Education 130.3 4.3 1.3
Amusement & Recreation 40.0 5.7 -2.9

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 843.8 0.9 0.3
Commercial Total 251.13 -1.5 2.4
Office 101.3 2.3 6.3
Data Centers 28.5 32.1 18.9
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 -4.4 0.3
Hotel 23.4 -2.7 -0.5
Warehouse 63.0 -5.0 4.2
Manufacturing 233.0 -0.4 -5.6
Institutional Total 359.4 3.5 2.6
Health 68.8 1.6 3.3
Education 130.5 3.8 2.6
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 6.3 1.5

ConstructConnect

Michael Guckes
(614) 425-0816
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 856.3 -0.6 1.2
Commercial Total 251.3 2.3 3.4
Office 101.3 4.2 1.0
Data Centers 28.5 19.9 13.5
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 0.8 4.8
Hotel 23.4 1.7 6.4
Warehouse 60.9 0.0 7.1
Manufacturing 233.0 11.2 1.7
Institutional Total 359.4 3.9 1.4
Health 68.8 4.0 3.7
Education 130.5 2.7 -3.2
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 5.3 0.5

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 843.8 0.6 1.5
Commercial Total 251.3 -0.9 2.5
Office 101.3 0.7 2.4
Data Centers 28.5 22.1 14.2
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 -2.0 2.8
Hotel 23.4 -2.4 1.0
Warehouse 60.9 -6.5 -4.0
Manufacturing 233.0 -2.3 -3.3
Institutional Total 359.4 3.5 3.9
Health 71.4 0.7 1.3
Education 130.5 3.8 3.1
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 7.0 0.5

Wells Fargo Securities

Charles Dougherty
(704) 410-6542
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 746.8 2.8 5.3
Commercial Total 251.2 -0.7 5.6
Office 101.2 6.0 9.4
Data Centers 28.5 42.0 21.0
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 -6.1 2.5
Hotel 23.4 -0.5 3.9
Warehouse 60.9 -10.7 2.7
Manufacturing 233.1 3.1 5.2
Institutional Total 359.4 5.8 5.0
Health 68.8 0.3 3.4
Education 130.5 6.3 5.7
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 13.4 6.8

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(484)924-9739
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 843.8 2.1 3.9
Commercial Total 251.3 0.2 1.4
Office 101.3 3.2 0.3
Data Centers N/A N/A N/A
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 -2.3 1.9
Hotel 23.4 0.0 3.8
Warehouse N/A N/A N/A
Manufacturing 233.0 0.0 0.3
Institutional Total 359.4 4.7 7.9
Health 68.8 1.9 4.4
Education 130.5 5.1 5.7
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 6.3 3.3

Piedmont Crescent Capital

Mark Vitner
(704)458-4000
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 836.7 2.7 4.5
Commercial Total 251.3 -1.1 4.1
Office 101.3 3.8 6.0
Data Centers 28.0 5.0 6.8
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 -5.1 3.0
Hotel 23.4 -1.2 1.7
Warehouse 60.0 -7.5 -2.5
Manufacturing 233.0 2.3 5.5
Institutional Total 352.3 5.6 4.1
Health 68.8 0.2 3.5
Education 130.5 5.8 1.8
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 11.8 2.8

Free Agent Economist

Richard Branch
(603) 545-4012
 Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 746.9 3.2 3.8
Commercial Total 251.3 5.0 5.6
Office 101.3 11.0 9.4
Data Centers 28.5 48.6 24.7
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 0.2 0.7
Hotel 23.4 4.7 13.6
Warehouse 60.9 -2.1 1.5
Manufacturing 233.0 -2.8 -1.8
Institutional Total 359.4 7.6 5.7
Health 68.8 3.5 8.5
Education 130.5 5.6 6.9
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 14.0 2.0

Notes:

All summissions are for construction spending put-in-place in billions of $ (not adjusted for inflation) as benchmarked to U.S. Census Bureau releases.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There is no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

Unless otherwise noted, the institutional category is defined as the sum of: healthcare, education, religious, public safety, amusement and recreation, transportation, and communication.

The Dodge Construction Network definition of the institutional market does not include communication facilities.

S&P Global classifies all government buildings as institutional.