CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JANUARY 2025

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total – 2.2 2.6
Commercial Total – 1.7 4.2
Office – 3.6 4.0
Data Centers – 21.9 14.6
Retail & Other Commercial – -0.6 3.4
Hotel – 4.7 8.9
Warehouse – -2.0 2.3
Manufacturing – 2.6 -2.5
Institutional Total – 6.0 3.4
Health – 4.3 3.8
Education – 3.9 3.7
Amusement & Recreation – 5.8 1.6

Dodge Construction Network

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 708.5 5.4 3.7
Commercial Total 248.9 8.6 6.2
Office 107.2 14.4 3.2
Data Centers N/A N/A N/A
Retail & Other Commercial 116.5 0.4 5.8
Hotel 25.2 21.7 20.2
Warehouse 60.6 -4.0 2.0
Manufacturing 193.6 17.9 -10.0
Institutional Total 263.3 14.4 5.1
Health 70.4 20.8 5.8
Education 131.2 9.9 5.3
Amusement & Recreation 41.2 15.8 2.3

S&P Global, Market Intelligence

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 765.8 -2.4 -2.9
Commercial Total 215.3 -1.8 1.4
Office 84.2 0.3 1.8
Data Centers N/A N/A N/A
Retail & Other Commercial 108.3 -6.4 -2.8
Hotel 22.8 12.5 16.4
Warehouse 60.8 -8.6 -4.2
Manufacturing 229.9 -11.2 -15.0
Institutional Total 292.9 3.6 1.3
Health 67.8 1.0 4.1
Education 128.6 5.4 3.0
Amusement & Recreation 40.2 3.6 -2.5

Moody’s Analytics

Steven Shields
(610) 235-5142
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 741.3 0.3 0.2
Commercial Total 250.6 1.8 4.6
Office 100.5 2.5 4.0
Data Centers 27.7 24.2 21.0
Retail & Other Commercial 126.6 0.8 4.0
Hotel 23.4 4.0 10.1
Warehouse 60.9 -0.3 4.4
Manufacturing 231.5 -2.6 -5.4
Institutional Total 355.1 2.0 1.0
Health 68.0 -0.6 0.5
Education 128.6 1.0 1.4
Amusement & Recreation 39.9 5.2 -2.2

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 845.3 2.1 1.9
Commercial Total 348.2 -1.9 3.4
Office 100.8 2.1 5.1
Data Centers 27.7 19.5 12.7
Retail & Other Commercial 224.0 -3.2 2.7
Hotel 23.4 -6.9 3.0
Warehouse 62.2 -6.1 1.5
Manufacturing 235.6 5.8 0.4
Institutional Total 261.5 3.9 1.2
Health 67.3 1.8 2.0
Education 129.7 3.5 3.0
Amusement & Recreation 41.1 6.8 -1.2

ConstructConnect

Michael Guckes
(614) 425-0816
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 742.4 2.1 2.3
Commercial Total 251.2 6.6 6.6
Office 101.0 5.2 2.2
Data Centers 27.3 18.1 7.7
Retail & Other Commercial 126.9 7.4 8.8
Hotel 23.4 8.9 12.7
Warehouse 64.2 11.7 6.4
Manufacturing 231.7 11.2 1.7
Institutional Total 259.4 11.2 1.7
Health 68.0 4.1 4.5
Education 128.4 2.1 1.8
Amusement & Recreation 40.1 4.0 4.4

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 844.4 2.7 3.2
Commercial Total 252.2 -1.6 3.9
Office 101.1 -1.3 4.8
Data Centers 28.0 24.0 15.1
Retail & Other Commercial 127.7 -2.0 3.0
Hotel 23.4 -0.4 4.9
Warehouse 61.7 -7.3 1.4
Manufacturing 234.9 7.2 1.6
Institutional Total 357.3 2.7 3.9
Health 68.7 1.7 3.5
Education 128.7 -2.3 3.1
Amusement & Recreation 40.1 4.2 4.6

Wells Fargo Securities

Charles Dougherty
(704) 410-6542
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 732.2 3.4 6.5
Commercial Total 240.7 2.8 6.5
Office 101.1 10.4 10.3
Data Centers 28.5 28.0 23.0
Retail & Other Commercial 117.4 -2.9 3.1
Hotel 22.2 -1.2 4.3
Warehouse 57.0 -5.5 2.7
Manufacturing 241.7 5.4 9.5
Institutional Total 249.9 2.2 3.5
Health 66.7 2.1 3.8
Education 126.6 1.3 3.4
Amusement & Recreation 36.2 3.5 3.9

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(484)924-9739
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 839.8 3.7 4.7
Commercial Total 250.4 0.3 1.6
Office 100.5 0.9 0.6
Data Centers N/A N/A N/A
Retail & Other Commercial 126.5 -0.7 1.8
Hotel 23.4 3.4 4.8
Warehouse N/A N/A N/A
Manufacturing 232.8 0.7 1.5
Institutional Total 356.6 8.1 8.7
Health 68.1 2.5 5.1
Education 128.8 6.4 8.3
Amusement & Recreation 39.9 5.9 3.3

Piedmont Crescent Capital

Mark Vitner
(704)458-4000
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2024 2025 2026
Nonresidential Total 726.0 2.7 4.0
Commercial Total 252.0 0.1 3.8
Office 100.5 -1.6 3.8
Data Centers 28.5 17.5 8.1
Retail & Other Commercial 128.0 1.4 3.8
Hotel 23.5 0.3 3.5
Warehouse 60.0 4.2 4.0
Manufacturing 272.0 -11.0 -6.5
Institutional Total 267.9 6.1 4.2
Health 68.9 5.0 4.5
Education 131.1 7.7 3.8
Amusement & Recreation 39.9 3.0 1.5

Notes:

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There is no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.

FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.