CONSENSUS CONSTRUCTION FORECAST, JULY 2024

Click on each name to see their forecast

Consensus

  Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total – 7.4 2.0
Commercial Total – -0.1 1.3
Office – 2.8 1.0
Retail & Other Commercial – -1.8 0.3
Hotel – -0.3 6.6
Industrial Total – 13.7 0.1
Institutional Total – 10.7 4.1
Health – 7.3 4.0
Education – 10.1 4.4
Religious – 12.5 0.8
Public Safety – 30.3 4.2
Amusement & Recreation – 11.7 3.9

Dodge Construction Network

Richard Branch
(781) 430-8884
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 679.8 5.2 4.6
Commercial Total 254.5 -2.1 2.4
Office 98.9 4.1 0.6
Retail & Other Commercial 132.0 -9.2 0.7
Hotel 23.6 11.8 17.6
Industrial Total 196.5 1.9 3.8
Institutional Total 228.7 16.1 7.3
Health 63.2 9.1 7.3
Education 116.3 16.5 6.9
Religious 3.4 8.4 14.3
Public Safety 13.3 26.6 6.2
Amusement & Recreation 32.5 25.2 8.2

S&P Global, Market Intelligence

Scott Hazelton
(781) 301-9044
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 700.3 9.0 -2.7
Commercial Total 222.8 -0.8 -1.5
Office 83.9 0.8 0.8
Retail & Other Commercial 115.7 -3.1 -8.7
Hotel 23.2 4.3 23.1
Industrial Total 195.3 16.1 -11.4
Institutional Total 257.8 12.6 2.2
Health 63.1 9.8 2.7
Education 116.0 13.2 4.0
Religious 3.4 9.8 -14.0
Public Safety N/A N/A N/A
Amusement & Recreation 32.4 9.5 -0.7

Moody’s Analytics

Steven Shields
(610) 235-5142
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 677.3 8.0 -0.7
Commercial Total 254.0 -0.1 1.5
Office 78.5 7.0 1.8
Retail & Other Commercial 131.7 -2.0 0.9
Hotel 23.6 -0.6 4.8
Industrial Total 195.3 14.4 -5.0
Institutional Total 228.0 11.7 0.9
Health 63.1 5.7 -1.1
Education 116.0 11.6 0.9
Religious 3.4 15.4 -2.6
Public Safety 13.0 35.6 4.7
Amusement & Recreation 32.4 13.7 3.6

FMI

Brian Strawberry
(919) 787-8400
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 792.4 5.9 2.7
Commercial Total 358.7 -2.7 -1.6
Office 99.0 -0.4 -1.3
Retail & Other Commercial* 235.0 -3.3 -1.0
Hotel 24.7 -6.0 -8.5
Industrial Total 193.6 20.9 5.9
Institutional Total 240.1 6.6 5.5
Health 65.4 3.2 4.8
Education 120.2 6.8 5.4
Religious 3.8 7.0 -0.5
Public Safety 14.4 27.6 8.6
Amusement & Recreation 36.2 3.7 6.6

ConstructConnect

Michael Guckes
(614) 425-0816
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 680.0 6.8 -0.1
Commercial Total 254.6 1.9 4.5
Office 98.9 2.2 -0.6
Retail & Other Commercial 132.1 2.2 7.1
Hotel 23.6 -0.6 11.9
Industrial Total 196.4 8.1 -8.0
Institutional Total 229.0 11.2 1.7
Health 63.2 9.6 4.0
Education 116.4 10.8 1.3
Religious 3.5 12.0 -10.1
Public Safety 13.3 27.2 -5.9
Amusement & Recreation 32.6 9.2 3.7

Associated Builders and Contractors

Anirban Basu
(703) 812-2062
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 685.1 9.9 8.0
Commercial Total 254.6 3.0 4.5
Office 98.9 5.5 6.3
Retail & Other Commercial 132.1 1.7 3.1
Hotel 23.6 0.2 5.0
Industrial Total 196.4 14.9 13.0
Institutional Total 234.1 13.0 7.1
Health 63.2 8.1 5.2
Education 116.4 12.9 8.0
Religious 3.5 17.3 12.3
Public Safety 13.3 28.2 5.4
Amusement & Recreation 37.7 15.9 7.3

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Charles Dougherty
(704) 410-6542
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 680.6 7.1 1.4
Commercial Total 254.5 -3.5 -3.6
Office 98.9 -2.4 -3.5
Retail & Other Commercial 132.0 -4.3 -3.8
Hotel 23.6 -3.6 -2.5
Industrial Total 197.3 21.9 6.5
Institutional Total 228.7 6.1 1.4
Health 63.2 4.9 2.4
Education 116.3 3.4 2.9
Religious 3.4 11.8 3.2
Public Safety 13.3 30.6 -6.8
Amusement & Recreation 32.5 7.2 -1.8

Markstein Advisors

Bernard Markstein
(484)924-9739
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 680.0 9.4 3.4
Commercial Total 254.6 -0.2 1.1
Office 98.9 3.3 1.1
Retail & Other Commercial 132.1 -2.2 0.8
Hotel 23.6 -4.1 2.6
Industrial Total 196.4 16.4 1.8
Institutional Total 228.9 14.0 7.0
Health 63.2 10.5 5.1
Education 116.4 13.8 8.2
Religious 3.5 16.4 -0.8
Public Safety 13.3 37.5 14.4
Amusement & Recreation 32.6 12.0 3.4

Piedmont Crescent Capital

Mark Vitner
(704)458-4000
Spending Put-In-Place
(billions of $) 		Actual Forecast
$ % Change
2023 2024 2025
Nonresidential Total 679.6 5.6 1.1
Commercial Total 254.2 3.5 4.1
Office 98.9 5.0 4.0
Retail & Other Commercial 132.1 3.6 4.0
Hotel 23.2 -3.6 5.4
Industrial Total 196.4 8.7 -5.5
Institutional Total 228.9 5.4 3.6
Health 63.2 4.5 5.4
Education 116.4 2.0 1.7
Religious 3.5 14.3 5.5
Public Safety 13.3 29.0 6.7
Amusement & Recreation 32.6 8.7 4.5

Notes:

* FMI's "Retail & Other Commercial" category includes commercial/retail, transportation, and communication.

The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.

There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.

Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.

All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.